🎙️ Petit Petit Summit (10) Will a Taiwan Contingency Actually Happen?

August 8, 2022 — Part 3

War as a Sudden Catalyst for Change

Allan: What I’m really concerned about is a sudden, drastic change in the situation triggered by a war around this time.

Goro: You mean Taiwan?

Allan: That would be the logical starting point. Ukraine is already at a dead end; there’s not much more they can do there. It’s no coincidence that Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and Victoria Nuland came to Japan at this exact timing. It’s a signal: Ukraine is becoming useless, so the next target is East Asia. Nuland was the mastermind behind the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine. Now she’s been promoted to Under Secretary of State in the Biden administration. Think about what that implies.

Goro: If we think about it logically, Pelosi’s visit was intended to provoke China into starting a "Taiwan Contingency." It would be easy for the Chinese military to move into Taiwan—it’s right in front of them. Taiwan doesn't have the military power to stop it. However, the U.S. doesn't have troops stationed inside Taiwan, and they couldn't get tanks there in time except by ship. In the first place, the U.S. has no intention of fully committing troops to Taiwan. It would be just like Ukraine. That means the only tool left to be used is Japan. And Nuland came here to do the groundwork for that... right?

Allan: That seems to be the case. However, the public sentiment and the national consciousness regarding war are completely different in Japan compared to Ukraine.

Yūdai: But we have the bases. The U.S. bases.

Allan: Exactly. They’ll likely create a scenario where planes fly from U.S. bases in Japan to provide "support," or they’ll utilize the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). If it stays at that level, it might not escalate into a full-scale conflagration. If it ends there, we might be lucky... but...

Yūdai: Is there no possibility of it escalating to the use of nuclear weapons?

Allan: If you think about who would use them first, it’s unthinkable for China to use them on Taiwan. To China, Taiwan is a part of their own country.

Yūdai: Then would they launch missiles at U.S. or JSDF bases in Japan instead?

Allan: I’d like to believe that won't happen, but we can't say the probability is zero. Think about how much China actually "needs" Japan these days—they don't really need us much at all anymore. No matter what happens to Japan, China wouldn't suffer a fatal blow. Conversely, for Japan, China is an absolutely essential country—even more so than Russia is to Western Europe. So, China doesn't even need to fire missiles; they can just implement an economic blockade. If goods stop coming in from China, Japan would suffer a catastrophic blow instantly.

Goro: In what scenario would China fire missiles at U.S. or JSDF bases in Japan?

Allan: Most likely if bombers taking off from Japanese bases actually dropped bombs on China. That would give them the justification of "legitimate defense." China cares deeply about "face." If they feel they’ve been insulted or "tested," they will retaliate without hesitation.

Yūdai: Even if that happens, would the U.S. truly start a full-scale war with China?

Allan: No. Just like Ukraine now. They will never do anything that risks the U.S. mainland getting dragged into the fire.

Yūdai: So only Japan gets hit. ...How likely is that?

Allan: The probability is low, but in war, the unexpected always happens.

Goro: There are definitely nukes at the U.S. bases in Japan. Couldn't China justify a missile strike on those bases under the pretext of "preventing a launch"?

Allan: ...I don't even want to think about it. The people who planned and executed the COVID fraud are incredibly smart, but I don't think they are the same people who directly move the military. Currently, the quality of people in the U.S. government and military is deteriorating rapidly. People like Pelosi and Nuland... they’re hardly sane. Even with Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, the White House and the Pentagon wanted to stop her, but they couldn't control her. That’s a terrifying thing. The fate of a nation being swayed by figures who have little time left and no predictable restraint... it's truly scary. And Biden is basically an avatar—a puppet who doesn't move of his own will. With someone like that holding the nuclear codes, if something unexpected happens...

Goro: Whoa, whoa... stop, stop! Let’s stop right there. This is getting way too scary.