🎙️ Petit Petit Summit (11) Will Humanity Survive if We Avoid Nuclear War?

August 8, 2022 — Part 4

Survival of the "Stubborn"

Yūdai: I’ll be dead soon anyway, but as Ishikof-san said, I don't think humanity will go extinct just yet. With the destruction of immune systems, water pollution, and environmental decay, deaths from disease, starvation, and malnutrition will certainly rise. Maintaining society as we know it will be difficult, but some will survive. Those who do will be the ones who are genetically and biologically strong—after all, they’ll have adapted to a degraded environment.

Goro: I’d probably be the first one to drop out.

Yūdai: No, no, Goro-kun, you seem quite stubborn. You might lack athletic nerves, but you have decent stamina, and because you're small, you don't use much energy. A short, slightly stout person who walks around a fair bit actually seems strong to me. Your basal metabolic rate is low, you’ve got some fat stored to resist starvation, and by wandering around, you’re exposed to various bacteria and viruses, building up innate immunity. In a way, you might be the "ideal form" for the new era.

Goro: But we’re talking about a society with food shortages and failing infrastructure, hit by natural disasters on top of it all. I’d rather die in an instant than suffer through surviving a world like that.

Yūdai: In that case, do you prefer a death where you’re evaporated by a nuclear bomb?

Allan: Joking aside, if nuclear weapons are used, everything—including the environment—is blown away. There’s no "survival" then. The attacker won't do it halfway for fear of retaliation; they might go for broke and try to blow up the entire country at once. And since the people with their fingers on the nuclear buttons aren't exactly sane anymore, there’s no telling what they’ll do.

Goro: So that possibility isn't zero?

Allan: It’s not zero, but it probably won't happen. The people trying to use Pelosi and Nuland to spark a war see China as the next battlefield, with Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea as the frontline. But China is too big a target. Besides, neither Taiwan nor Japan actually wants a real war with China.

Goro: Especially Taiwan. Their conglomerates and corporations are deeply tied to China; they have no desire to fight. They won't make the mistake of becoming like the Ukrainian government, which was taken over by Neo-Nazis.

Yūdai: President Tsai Ing-wen is of Hakka descent and has close blood ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). I suspect that, in the end, she wouldn't mind Taiwan becoming a part of China.

Allan: Yes. Even now, Taiwan isn't recognized as an independent nation by most of the world. I believe their goal is to eventually be absorbed by China while securing special status and privileges, similar to a Special Administrative Region—though they won't say that out loud yet. Those who absolutely refuse to live under the CCP will likely migrate to the U.S. West Coast. Many already have relatives with U.S. citizenship. For the U.S., an influx of talented Taiwanese people is no loss.

Yūdai: Then it becomes even harder to see a scenario where Taiwan and China clash in full-scale combat, dragging Japan and South Korea into the fire.

Allan: I agree. That’s why, at this stage, the future for Japan looks more like a steady decline: a surge in deaths from disease, food shortages, and stagflation.

Yūdai: That sounds painful. People will be dropping like flies.

Allan: Less like "dropping like flies" and more like a "slow, steady grind." Though we might hit a point where the acceleration suddenly spikes.

Goro: That’s when the "time bomb" of the COVID vaccines starts going off. People with weakened immune systems slowly dying of various illnesses. But even then, the government will blame it on the failing economy or the energy crisis. They’ll incite the public by saying the lack of food and energy is all Russia and China’s fault.

Yūdai: Since that path is so clear, the real question is whether the Japanese people can maintain their composure when it happens.

Allan: Exactly. If we start shouting "Brutish China and Russia!" the same way we shouted "Brutish Americans and British!" eighty years ago, the situation will only get worse. It would be great if we could remove the dangerous figures from our government—the Japanese versions of Nuland and Pelosi—but that seems unlikely.

Goro: With the media reporting on the ties to the Unification Church every day, it feels like a slightly different current is starting to emerge.

Yūdai: Most politicians tied to that church aren't doing it out of political conviction; they just want votes for the election or are following orders from party leadership.

Allan: Likely so. If we could at least purge those empty-headed puppets, it would be a start.

Goro: Then the ones left over would be the truly dangerous ones, making it easier to spot them. Like the Japanese Nulands and Pelosis.

Allan: The problem is, there are plenty of ordinary citizens who think exactly like those dangerous people. It’s certain that Japan’s population decline will accelerate beyond all previous estimates, turning us into a nation of the poor. And when that happens, the deaths will be largely indiscriminate. It's not like only the thoughtful, good people will survive. In fact, it might be the opposite.

Goro: Ishikof-san, whenever you wrap things up, we always end up at a dark conclusion. Give me a break.

Allan: Ah, sorry, sorry. I guess I’m just negative by nature. Sigh. Well, shall we call it a day? I feel like we didn't make much progress this time, though.

Goro: Yeah.

Yūdai: Agreed. I’m a bit tired myself. I’m going to get some sleep.

Goro: Good night~!