🎙️ Petit Petit Summit (3) Why Does NATO Keep Expanding?

Yūdai: If my memory serves me, NATO was originally a military alliance formed to counter the military might of the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc satellites, was it not? While Russia has inherited the Soviet Union's rights within the UN, it is clearly a different nation from the USSR of old.
In fact, wasn't it the secret meeting in 1991 between Russia, Belarus (then called Byelorussia), and Ukraine—where they decided to lead the exit from the Union and form a confederation like the EC (European Community)—that acted as the final trigger for the Soviet collapse?

Allan: Precisely. That was the "Belovezha Accords."

Yūdai: Yes, that's the one. December 8th, 1991, if I recall. Shortly after, on December 21st, twelve republics, including Russia, established the "Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)" as a successor to the Soviet Union, declaring that the USSR had reached its end. Four days later, on Christmas Day, Gorbachev announced his resignation as President. I remember the whole world standing there with their mouths agape as this military superpower vanished in the blink of an eye. Even I had to double-check my ears; it felt utterly surreal.
So, in reality, wasn't Russia itself the primary architect behind the dissolution of the Soviet Union?

Goro: Yūdai-san, your memory is incredible.

Yūdai: I pride myself on being something of a "Historian," after all.

Goro: So you're a prophet, a historian, a psychic, and a shrine priest.

Yūdai: Are you mocking me?

Allan: Now, now. Let’s get back to the point.
The Warsaw Pact, which was created to counter NATO during the Cold War, was also dissolved following the Soviet collapse. At that point, NATO’s role should have been over. Yet, instead of disbanding, NATO continued to strengthen and expand, keeping Russia as its "hypothetical enemy."
In 1999, the accession of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland was approved. Putin became President the following year, in 2000, and at that stage, he actually tolerated NATO’s expansion. There’s even a theory that he sought to have Russia join NATO to neutralize the military confrontation between East and West.
Putin even attended the NATO summit near Rome in 2002, where the NATO-Russia Council was established. Things were still manageable then.
However, NATO proceeded with plans to build missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, which provoked Russia. That’s when Putin finally lost his patience.
At the 2007 Munich Security Conference, Putin delivered a blistering speech directly to U.S. officials who were treating Russia as a foe and placing military installations on its borders.
He asked: "It is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. Against whom is this expansion intended? The U.S. oversteps its national borders in every way. Does one country, the United States, rule the world?"
The following year, at the Bucharest summit in April 2008, he appealed to the press with the same message.
Then, Medvedev took over as President. The U.S. thought this was their chance to crush Putin. They likely assumed that Medvedev’s presidency was a genuine shift, whereas in reality, it was just a superficial adherence to the Russian constitution. Everyone in Russia knew Putin was still the ultimate authority, but perhaps the Americans thought they could win Medvedev over and neutralize Putin."

Goro: If that's the case, the U.S. was pretty naive.

Allan: During that time, Putin was likely observing very closely exactly how the U.S. intended to destroy him.

Yūdai: So Putin’s irritation has been festering for about fifteen years. And now, he’s finally snapped.
Putin surely believes he is the only one who can protect Russia. But even a man of his robust physique cannot win against age. Perhaps he felt he couldn't endure any longer—that it was "now or never."

Allan: That’s quite possible. He takes great pride in having rebuilt the Russian economy. He witnessed firsthand the chaos that engulfed neighboring Eastern European countries after the Soviet collapse. He likely believes he is the only leader capable of standing up to the U.S.
You see, the old Soviet Union hardly traded with the West. They were largely self-sufficient in natural resources and grain, and they could manage shortages by trading within the Eastern Bloc.
However, from the perspective of Western "Capitalist" logic, that made them a weak, closed economic zone—an underdeveloped nation with no international competitiveness.
Furthermore, the bloating military spending since the Soviet era hindered industrial innovation, and corruption was rampant. Gorbachev tried to change that, but the problems were simply too gargantuan.
Putin sought to prevent economic collapse by reviving Soviet-style autocratic methods to lead Russia back to superpower status.
The U.S. can't stand that. They feel that if it weren't for him, the world would have been smoothly integrated under American leadership by now. That’s why they want to crush Putin before Russia gains any more power.

Goro: So it's the "Final War" between Putin and the U.S., with Ukraine as the battlefield? It’s a nightmare for everyone caught in the middle.

Yūdai: Indeed.

Goro: So, Yūdai-san, what does your "prophecy" say happens next?

Yūdai: The future I see—to put it bluntly—is one where the world is gradually restructured under the dominion of China and Russia. The era of U.S. hegemony will end; Europe will largely be entangled under Russia, and Asia under China...

Goro: What?! No way! I hate that. I absolutely hate the sound of that.

Yūdai: I doubt anyone likes the sound of it. But we’ll likely be dead before then. It’s your generation, Goro-kun, that has a rough time ahead.

Goro: Don't say that! Isn't there anything we can do?

Yūdai: I am not God. There is nothing to be done.